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Full ex-ante carbon modeling
End-to-end project models covering baseline, growth, survival, mortality, uncertainty, leakage, and methodology-eligible carbon pools.
Services
Technical support built around the diligence process.
We help nature-based carbon projects move from ecological assumptions to models that can withstand scrutiny. Our work is tailored to the decisions developers need to make and the risks investors and buyers need to understand.
Developers
Build models that are ready for capital.
From early concept through diligence, we build defensible ex-ante models, strengthen ecological assumptions, and reduce friction when investors, buyers, registries, or third parties review the project.
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Growth & survival modeling
Species-, site-, and ecosystem-specific trajectories for projects that already have other model components in place.
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Assumption development
Literature review, allometry, biomass accumulation, mortality, establishment, and parameter selection with transparent evidence.
04
Uncertainty & scenario analysis
High, base, and low cases plus explicit treatment of parameter uncertainty and model sensitivity.
05
Climate & delivery-risk analysis
Evaluate how changing climate may affect growth, survival, mortality, and projected issuances before diligence exposes the risk.
Investors & Buyers
Understand what is really driving delivery risk.
We independently pressure-test project models so diligence teams can distinguish reasonable ecological uncertainty from assumptions that materially change expected credit delivery.
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Independent model review
Review ex-ante models for ecological plausibility, internal consistency, methodology alignment, and sensitivity to key assumptions.
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Rebuild & benchmark
Develop an independent carbon trajectory to compare against developer projections and identify where models diverge.
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Growth, survival & mortality diligence
Assess whether biological assumptions are supported by site conditions, species ecology, empirical evidence, and management plans.
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Uncertainty & downside analysis
Quantify how uncertainty and adverse ecological scenarios flow through to expected issuances and delivery timing.
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Technical diligence support
Translate complex ecological and modeling issues into concise findings, decision-relevant questions, and clear risk framing.
Ex-ante carbon modeling
From ecological assumptions to a defensible carbon forecast.
We build transparent models around the biological processes that determine delivery, rather than treating the carbon curve as a fixed financial input.
How it works
- Define methodology, eligible pools, project activities, and decision needs.
- Assemble site, species, management, literature, and empirical evidence.
- Build baseline, growth, survival, mortality, leakage, and uncertainty components.
- Run high, base, low, and sensitivity cases and document the assumptions.
- Deliver a model and technical rationale ready for diligence.
Example engagements
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Tropical forest restoration
Latin America · Ex-ante biomass, survival, mortality, and issuance modeling.
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Dryland restoration
Southern Africa · Growth constraints, establishment survival, and delivery-risk scenarios.
Growth & survival
Model the biology that drives the carbon curve.
We develop or pressure-test growth, survival, mortality, and biomass assumptions using site-specific evidence, ecological theory, and uncertainty analysis.
How it works
- Identify the biological assumptions with the greatest influence on delivery.
- Compile species-, site-, and management-relevant data and literature.
- Fit or select appropriate growth, survival, mortality, and allometric relationships.
- Propagate uncertainty into project-level carbon trajectories.
- Document limitations and identify the assumptions that need monitoring.
Example engagements
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Loblolly pine plantations
Southeastern U.S. · Growth trajectories, management assumptions, and biomass accumulation.
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Agroforestry & savanna systems
East Africa · Establishment, survival, tree growth, and long-term carbon accumulation.
Delivery Risk Analysis
Find the assumptions that actually change expected delivery.
We independently test ecological assumptions, model structure, uncertainty, and downside scenarios, then translate the results into decision-relevant delivery risk.
How it works
- Review the model, methodology, supporting evidence, and key delivery assumptions.
- Identify material ecological assumptions and potential failure modes.
- Benchmark or independently rebuild key parts of the forecast where useful.
- Quantify downside cases and impacts on expected delivery and timing.
- Summarize findings as clear risks, sensitivities, and decision-relevant conclusions.
Example engagements
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Tropical restoration delivery risk
Latin America · Independent pressure-test of growth, survival, biomass, and projected delivery.
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Blue-carbon model review
Southeast Asia · Review of biomass assumptions, carbon pools, and model uncertainty.
Typical deliverables
- Transparent Excel carbon model
- Technical modeling memo with references
- Key assumptions and uncertainties memo
- High / base / low scenario outputs
- Climate or sensitivity analysis where relevant
Flexible engagement structure
Projects can engage us for a full model, a focused technical workstream, or an independent review. Scope is built around the stage of the project and the diligence questions that need to be answered.
You do not need to buy a full-suite engagement when the real issue is one assumption, one carbon pool, or one piece of the model.
Make the technical work easier to defend.
Whether you are preparing a project for funding or deciding whether a carbon forecast is credible, we can help clarify the ecology behind the model.